The 2015 Mayoral election has been and still is one of the oddest that I have witnessed. At the risk of offending the candidates, I share some thoughts on the reasons this election has been challenging.

1. The public does not seem interested, except in potholes. Many people are just now waking up to the fact that Mayor Parker has reached term limits. Daily I am asked why she is not running again.

2. The number of quality candidates has overwhelmed even the most aware voters. Several of them are great. Many people feel like they could comfortably support several of them. When pushed, they will come up with a favorite but they don’t really care among the top 3 or 4 they support.

3. Polls are inconsistent. No one poll has predicted the outcome that matches other polls. Each of them show a tight clump of candidates. They consistently reveal that “The Statesman” Sylvester Turner is in the lead but vary significantly and within the margin of error on who might make a run-off with him.

4. The debate over Houston’s Equal Rights Ordinance may be generating more emotion than the candidates. People have strong feelings about the referendum on this ordinance and it may bring voters to the polls that don’t consistently vote in city elections. This could also skew current polling data. The polls rely on “likely” City voters.

5. Where is the excitement? There are 6 really strong candidates who have trooped from forum to forum, spoken on their own and run aggressive grass-roots campaigns. Each of them have a cadre of hard-core supporters that engage. However, no one of them has captured the passion and dedication that normally accompanies mayoral candidates – from the underdog spirit to the secure front-runner. The Turner camp has many young people involved and you can feel passion around him at times. He personally is a passionate person. Garcia also has a cadre of youth backing him and good grass-roots support. King has been gaining with conservatives.  Bell generates a strong passion among his loyalists as does Costello. Hall has much of the conservative religious community backing him It’s just that the public is not catching on or connecting in a big way.

6. So, based on data, organization, endorsements, spending and more, one could say that expect Turner to be in the run-off. The question is who will share the stage with him?

This blogger has no intention of recommending a candidate to you. However, it is critical that you study these folks, pick one and cast a ballot. You may view the League of Women Voters guide to the election by clicking here.

The “C” Club is a conservative organization but they have surprised folks in the past by making unexpected endorsements. Many politicos think of them as the “rational” conservatives. They are a well-respected group of conservative-leaning, mostly business-oriented members.  Here is their own description of their organization:

“The purpose of the “C” Club of Houston is to promote an environment in which candidates possessing high moral principles and a clear vision of the future can be elected. The “C” Club’s non-partisan support of political candidates is heavily based upon, but not limited to, the candidate’s support of conservative fiscal policies; and, the preservation of our communities and the promotion of a strong economy. Founded in 1964, the “C” Club PAC is composed of 100 fiscally conservative Houston business and professionals members who make a continuous study of local, Texas government.”  http://www.cclub.org/

Our sources indicate that there were three contenders worthy of their support with most of the candidates having at least one or two members in their favor. The top three, however, were Stehpen Costello, Adrian Garcia and Bill King.

It takes 75% of the membership to approve their endorsement. This is a significant victory for King. King is a middle-of-the-road candidate who reasons out his positions and post lots of thoughtful white papers on complex issues. Many have expressed concern that his nebulous position on HERO will cause him grief on the campaign trail. King always shifts the discussion back to pensions and streets.

Unfortunately, we can’t share details of the debate with you as we did with the GLBT caucus endorsement as we weren’t allowed to participate.

Does this endorsement matter? It probably bolsters King’s support among conservatives and really helps him in the westside voter pool.

Ben Hall remains the only candidate stridently opposing HERO and continues to garner support from the Hotze family and other religious conservatives while Costello remains popular with many centrist voters.

The battle for the right-leaning voters continues but this endorsement gives King a real boost.

I would love to tell you that I’m a futurist or have pyschic abilities but an issue that generates this level of passion will always remain present. Just remember that the Roe v. Wade decision was made 42 years ago and still dominates elections. On HERO, people are passionate about Equal Rights on one side of the issue and bathrooms on the other.

Houston City Council voted yesterday to put the Ordinance on the ballot, forced to do so by a Court decision, for a public vote. No candidate and few individuals will be able to escape the election without engaging in at least one conversation on the topic. The issue may drive a higher turnout than we have seen in recent city elections.

Where does this leave the candidates for Mayor? Bell, Costello, Garcia, McVey, and Turner support the Ordinance. Ben Hall is avidly opposed to the Ordinance. Bill King has developed a thoughtful white paper on his opinion on the subject. Click here to review.

This election will evolve into another example of social issues driving democracy. But will it fix the potholes or balance the city budget? Let’s remember to keep asking these questions amdist the emotional debate.

The issue of flooding seems a little bit like a game of chess. Everytime one area of the city improves, another area floods. With the addition of more concrete everywhere in the city limits, areas that flood change. It is a challenge for a world-class city that arose from a swamp.

But the other issue that still dominates the election is the condition of our streets. This issue will not stop or fade from the minds of voters. Every single day, Houstonians hop in their cars and drive down our roads. The city has made an attempt to “patch” some of the thousands of potholes that make our streets look like they have a case of acne – a pox on the city.

Alas, the rains came and though not every area flooded, most of the patched potholes reappared as ideal opportunities to tear up your car. Many of the “quick fixes” for potholes involve a temporary fix with a mix of asphalt. The powerful rains washed away the mix exposing the gaping holes once again.

Historically, Mayoral campaigns will focus on a variety of issues but the one closest to the heart of voters will emerge as a top priority. My free advice to candidates this year is “It’s about the potholes!”

When there are such intelligent candidates seeking the office this year, many of them are talking about other important issues. Finances and pensions are vitally important to the well-being of the city and to the services it provides. Pensions alone could lead the city into bankruptcy. Yet, voters will likely receive a small tax roll back this year and the city just doubled the tax exemption for seniors. Voters will not necessarily be actually, tangibly experincing the looming financial crisis.

But, every day they get in their cars and drive. Every day. There is not a neighborhood in the city that does not have potholes, at least on a major thoroughfare.

I’m declaring a theme song for the Mayor’s race. It is by Twenty One Pilots and officially named “Tear in my Heart”. When you listen here, replace the word “heart” with car! Pay close attention to the lyrics.

Now! Tell us how you will fix the potholes! Go!

And they are off! Tonight, the first of many Mayoral candidate forums was held and all 7 recognized mayoral aspirants appeared. The forum was hosted by Houston arts organizations and focused on arts and culture.

The best part of the event was to see the candidates all field questions, both pre-selected and from the audience. We began to see themes emerge, recognized styles and learned quickly who would answer the questions directly and who had lots to say but then you weren’t sure what you heard.

Of course, all the candidates “loved the arts and culture” but when the discussion focused on technical questions, some of the candidates clearly knew the issues while others did not. The following are some initial observations. The candidates are listed in alphabetical order.

Chris Bell “The comic”: Bell knew his stuff on arts and used humor to convey his messages. Clearly a smooth talker, he developed a rapport with the audience quickly. Themes that seemed to emerge focused on modernizing city services through technology.

Steve Costello “The Engineer”: Costello focused very much on pensions and city finances. As a sitting City Council Member, he was adept on the issues and handled them well. He is straightforward and thoughtful but just a little nerdy.

Adrian Garcia “Earnest Adrian”: Garcia had a broad understanding on arts issues and talked about his humble beginnings as well as graduating from HSPVA. He was aggressive when talking about exposing kids to the arts. He comes across very earnest and very honest with the audience.

Ben Hall “The Philosopher”: Hall began his remarks by talking about the “pursuit of happiness” and freedom of expression. These are central to the arts. However, he was very strong on his theme of no new taxes and no new public funding sources. It’s about the budget, people.

Bill King “Back to Basics Bill”: King was straightforward, knowledgeable and brought most answers back to his core message. While other candidates were debating and discussing “Houston as a world class city”, King quipped that you couldn’t have a “world-class city with third world streets”. He also focused on finances.

Marty McVey “Babyface”: The least experienced candidate in the group, making his first run for office, he clearly communicated his theme of economic development. He wasn’t very knowledgable on the issues but tied them back to his idea of more business development will create more dollars.

Sylvester Turner “Statesman”: Turner was passionate, soulful and knowlegeable on the issues. His message came across as “I’ve been there and done that – for you!” He shared with the audience how he had brought home the arts bacon from Austin and would always do more. He related well with the audience.

Since this was the first forum, the candidates were all polite and well-mannered. I suspect as the next 100 or so forums pass, the mood will shift. They will hit a point where they can all give each other’s opening remarks. They will tire of listening to their opponents. But for now, tonight was a fun kick-off to a very long season.

P.S. – Thanks to all my readers for your patience. This has been a difficult time for me and my family. We’re back now and will be covering politics and policy and whatever else we want to discuss.

What issues do we as Houstonians care about? I’ll take a stab at a few but would also love to hear from you in the comments section.

The condition of the streets and traffic seem to be major issues with the voting public. There is nary a street in Houston that is not in poor condition. Potholes, road deterioration, cracks and more make driving difficult. Add to the road conditions, the volume of traffic that has increased on city streets and people begin to increase their voices with displeasure.

Public safety is always an issue in local political campaigns and the voters usually respond. People want to feel safe in their homes, shopping and riding the bus. They want to know that there are enough police officers for protection and enough fire fighters to respond in a timely fashion. The police and fire unions are certain to engage, share their preference for a candidate and ensure that this issue stays front and center during the campaign.

The intelligentsia of the city is most concerned with pension reform and city budgets. No one wants to see the city file for bankruptcy as has happened in other major urban areas. Expect this topic to emerge from candidates. It will be interesting to see if the voters care as much.

The one issue that will most definitely penetrate the election, however, is the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance. (HERO). This ordinance was hotly debated last summer and is now embroiled in a court case. Citizens petitioned to have the right to vote on the Ordinance but according to the city, did not collect enough valid signatures.

Some pundits are saying that the case will resolve and it will all be over by the time the campaign gets underway. I disagree strongly. When people are passionate about an issue, they do not let go so easily. There are many bruised feelings on both sides of this hotly debated issue and the ballot box is likely to be their sounding board. Those who support it will be looking to endorse and work for candidates that stand with them. Those that oppose it will be doing the same. If Mayoral candidates think they can brush off this issue, they are very misguided. They will have to take a position and face the consequences.

The issue will also penetrate into the Council races. Some Council Members were threatened at the time of the vote at the Council table and may see resulting action.

Personally, I hope the focus stays on the best ways to run our city and does not become sidetracked by an emotional issue. Yet I know from experience that emotional issues can easily dominate an election and expect this to be no different.

In just a few days, a new Republican-controlled House and Senate convene to govern our country alongside a Democratic president. Frankly, there is not likely to be much governing going on in D.C. but there will be plenty of hot air to warm a chill winter.

Alas, the themes of the next Presidential election will be running through all conversations, governing and actions. Presidential candidates are emerging and Hillary Clinton will have to confirm or deny her plans to enter the race. For in the world of campaigns, the 2016 election is rapidly approaching.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch in Texas, the Legislature will convene very soon. As we like to say, “No person’s life, liberty or wallet or safe when the Legislature is in Session.” That is, of course, why the founders of this great state thought the Legislature should meet every other year for 140 days. Initially, everyone was excited that the recent oil and economic growth in Texas might create a less budget strapped Session. Yet in just a matter of days, the price of oil is rapidly dropping and it may cause already strained budgets to be more closely reviewed.

In the state’s largest urban area and the 4th largest city in America, a Mayoral race will dominate the scenery. Literally, once the campaign signs start rising from the ground. A pool of candidates have announced their intentions to run and others are likely to come forward. It will be a crowded field seeking to govern the metropolis. There will also be 4 open seats for City Council and several contested races against incumbents as well as a new City Controller will be chosen. We’ll be tracking all the action here on the blog so stay tuned. Just track these categories: Hou Mayor 2015 and 2015 City of Houston Elections.

Happy Political New Year! Let’s rumble.

Today, we’ll lay out the “maybes” which at this point is a large number of civically engaged individuals. We’re certain we have missed some people considering a bid. If that is the case, send us a note and we’ll include you or your favorite in the future.

Now, let’s get started. Other potential Mayoral contenders include:

Sheriff Adrian Garcia is widely rumored to be considering a run for Mayor. Many of the insiders believe that he would be a serious contender and a likely front-runner with Sylvester Turner. The challenge for the Sheriff is that county office holders are prohibited from seeking other office. He has to resign at the point he decides to make an official announcement. This alone raises serious questions about his candidacy. If he resigns, he leaves the Republican County Commissioners Court to appoint his replacement and that concerns many Democrats. In fact, the Sheriff represents more people now than he would as Mayor and is touted both statewide and even nationally as a prominent Latino elected official.

Orlando Sanchez, the Harris County Treasurer and a former Houston City Council Member, finds himself in the same position. He is currently on the ballot and says “winning re-election” is his top priority. Sanchez has sought the office of Mayor twice before. While he is a Republican, he has deep Latino roots and has always done well with Latino voters.

For both of these folks, it is wait and see until the fundraising window opens. We can’t expect an announcement from either of them until after the first of the year. By then, the dynamics may change but we are keeping them both on the list.

Other Houston City Council Members have their eye on the race. Council Member Brad Bradford is term-limited so there is nothing for him to loose by assessing a candidacy. Many think he is looking at another opportunity but we definitely have him on our list.

Council Members Jack Christie and Michael Kubosh are both considering the race. They both can stand for re-election to their current positions. They will have to make a call sooner rather than later. If folks think they are running for Mayor and they change their mind, they may face stronger opponents in their re-election efforts.

Folks, that brings the total of current City Council Members either announced or considering a run for Mayor to 5. It will make for fun Council politics until it all shakes out.

Ben Hall ran against Parker last election and is said to be considering another bite at the apple. We hope he hires different political professionals as he had one of the worst campaigns ever in 2013. He can finance the race though and would still be a contender if he decides to run.

Bill King is a former Mayor of Kemah, a high-profile civic leader and a columnist for the daily newspaper’s editorial page. He has stepped to the plate in the past and then decided not to make the run. We keep his name on the list because many people mention him frequently.

Gilbert Garcia is the current Chair of the Metro Board and his name is bandied about quite a bit. He is said to be analyzing the race and assessing a potential candidacy. He would bring a different perspective to the campaign.

Former Houston City Council Member Sue Lovell‘s name is frequently mentioned. She has been long-involved in politics and has a strong base of supporters. She has told some she won’t run but her name keeps coming up in conversations.

If we go back to Monday’s post and reconsider the Sims theory on Mayoral elections, most of these names do not fit the model. Who are the business leaders considering the race?

The daily paper has mentioned Marty McVey. He is a strong civic leader, well-liked and has financial management experience.

Ric Campo is a powerhouse in the city. He currently chairs Central Houston Inc., Houston First and the Super Bowl Committee. Professionally, he is the CEO of Camden Properties, a major real estate developer. How can you not include this guy on a list of potential candidates?

Paul Hobby is currently Chair of the Greater Houston Partnership. He has told folks that he doesn’t plan to run but his name continues to bubble up among the gossips. He is doing a great job as Chair of this leading business organization. His term expires in January and many are hopeful he will then consider a bid for Mayor.

Less mentioned but certainly a potentially worthy candidate is Nancy Kinder. Nancy and Rich Kinder are among the city’s most generous philanthropic leaders. They have consistently shown an interest in the future of the city and in policy initiatives. Nancy Kinder has been a driving force with the development and ongoing strength of Discovery Green, Houston parks and Buffalo Bayou preservation initiatives. They have made a solid commitment to improving the city’s quality of life. Additionally, they support the Kinder Institute at Rice University. Nancy Kinder would be a formidable candidate for Mayor of Houston.

Obviously, all of these people will not make the run for Mayor. A few will emerge over the next few months and we’ll be sharing our thoughts as the assess their options. Buckle-up for what will be a truly exciting 2015 election cycle.

Today, we’ll look at those candidates that have given an indication they are seriously considering a run for the office or have already announced.

The “announced” or “expected” candidates include Chris Bell, Steve Costello, Oliver Pennington and Sylvester Turner. These names are listed in alphabetical order by last name. All of these candidates have been involved in politics and currently hold or have held office in the past.

If anyone questions State Representative Sylvester Turner’s commitment to running for Mayor, please watch this video. At a soiree last week that feted his 25 years of public service in the Texas Legislature, the video debuted. It has been reported that there was not a dry eye in the room.

Rep.Turner has made two previous attempts to become Mayor of Houston. In 1991, he was the underdog candidate and helped take then incumbent Mayor Kathy Whitmire out of office. He landed in a run-off with Bob Lanier. The campaign was nail-bitingly close and Turner narrowly lost the race after a blistering television story. Turner later sued the network and won one of the largest libel cases in Texas. Though he never actually received a settlement, the case made permanent changes to libel law in Texas.

In 2003, Turner again sought the office and was considered a front runner with Orlando Sanchez. But Bill White entered the race and the rest is history.

Not to be underestimated is State Senator John Whitmire’s support for Turner. He is committed to seeing Turner elected Mayor and openly supporting and encouraging others to support him.

Is it Turner’s turn? As the Houston Chronicle has reported, he will have ample funding transferable from his legislative account to finance his race. He has put together a team of seasoned political professionals as well. Today, most of the politicos consider him a serious contender for Mayor in 2015 and many folks are calling him the “one to beat”.

Council Member Oliver Pennington who currently represents District G in west Houston has openly indicated he will run for Mayor. In fact, many folks recently received a well-done mailer from him seeking their support and here is a link to his website. He is a seasoned professional who has been involved with legislation and governance most of his career, though mostly behind the scenes. He has also assembled a talented professional team.

Pennington brings a strong base of voters with him and is a well-known Republican candidate. He also is a strong fundraiser and will likely have the money needed to make the race.

Council Member Stephen Costello has announced his intent to run for Mayor. Costello is a bit unique in that he has mostly supporter Mayor Parker’s agenda but aligns himself with the Republican side of the aisle. He has strong support from the engineering and construction community as he is an engineer himself. Costello is even-tempered and well-liked by folks at City Hall. He has also put together a professional team of advisers.

Chris Bell is a former member of City Council, a former Member of Congress and has previously run for Mayor. He has been active in Democratic politics for years and even ran for Governor against Rick Perry. Bell will have to raise considerable money to be taken seriously but he has always had an unusual group of supporters that tend to hail from outside the normal donors and political crowd. As a former radio and television reporter, he can give an inspiring speech and his dry sense of humor promises to keep the campaign trail interesting.

There may be other candidates that have announced but these are the most well-known and discussed currently.

On Friday, we will look at candidates that may be likely to run, rumored to run and those names being bandied about….

While we have shared our theory for the next Mayoral election previously, we wanted to recap it again.

This blogger has been observing city elections since the mid-70’s. If we just focus in on the last 30 years, we can see a distinct pattern emerge.

Kathy Whitmire was elected in 1981 and became the first female Mayor of Houston. She was defeated (prior to term limits) and replaced by Mayor Bob Lanier. We followed a first with a well-heeled business leader. Then Lee P. Brown was elected our first African-American Mayor. He was followed by another well-heeled white male business leader in Bill White. Annise Parker is the first gay Mayor of Houston. If the theory follows, we should be expecting a well-heeled business leader to lead the next election.

Throughout this week, we will discuss the currently announced candidates and some who may be considering a run but have not readied to go public. The city window for fundraising actually opens on February 1. We have time but the race is actually beginning to heat up.

As we analyze the race, let’s keep the Sims theory in mind. Will we break the pattern?