The 2015 Mayoral election has been and still is one of the oddest that I have witnessed. At the risk of offending the candidates, I share some thoughts on the reasons this election has been challenging.

1. The public does not seem interested, except in potholes. Many people are just now waking up to the fact that Mayor Parker has reached term limits. Daily I am asked why she is not running again.

2. The number of quality candidates has overwhelmed even the most aware voters. Several of them are great. Many people feel like they could comfortably support several of them. When pushed, they will come up with a favorite but they don’t really care among the top 3 or 4 they support.

3. Polls are inconsistent. No one poll has predicted the outcome that matches other polls. Each of them show a tight clump of candidates. They consistently reveal that “The Statesman” Sylvester Turner is in the lead but vary significantly and within the margin of error on who might make a run-off with him.

4. The debate over Houston’s Equal Rights Ordinance may be generating more emotion than the candidates. People have strong feelings about the referendum on this ordinance and it may bring voters to the polls that don’t consistently vote in city elections. This could also skew current polling data. The polls rely on “likely” City voters.

5. Where is the excitement? There are 6 really strong candidates who have trooped from forum to forum, spoken on their own and run aggressive grass-roots campaigns. Each of them have a cadre of hard-core supporters that engage. However, no one of them has captured the passion and dedication that normally accompanies mayoral candidates – from the underdog spirit to the secure front-runner. The Turner camp has many young people involved and you can feel passion around him at times. He personally is a passionate person. Garcia also has a cadre of youth backing him and good grass-roots support. King has been gaining with conservatives.  Bell generates a strong passion among his loyalists as does Costello. Hall has much of the conservative religious community backing him It’s just that the public is not catching on or connecting in a big way.

6. So, based on data, organization, endorsements, spending and more, one could say that expect Turner to be in the run-off. The question is who will share the stage with him?

This blogger has no intention of recommending a candidate to you. However, it is critical that you study these folks, pick one and cast a ballot. You may view the League of Women Voters guide to the election by clicking here.

The “C” Club is a conservative organization but they have surprised folks in the past by making unexpected endorsements. Many politicos think of them as the “rational” conservatives. They are a well-respected group of conservative-leaning, mostly business-oriented members.  Here is their own description of their organization:

“The purpose of the “C” Club of Houston is to promote an environment in which candidates possessing high moral principles and a clear vision of the future can be elected. The “C” Club’s non-partisan support of political candidates is heavily based upon, but not limited to, the candidate’s support of conservative fiscal policies; and, the preservation of our communities and the promotion of a strong economy. Founded in 1964, the “C” Club PAC is composed of 100 fiscally conservative Houston business and professionals members who make a continuous study of local, Texas government.”  http://www.cclub.org/

Our sources indicate that there were three contenders worthy of their support with most of the candidates having at least one or two members in their favor. The top three, however, were Stehpen Costello, Adrian Garcia and Bill King.

It takes 75% of the membership to approve their endorsement. This is a significant victory for King. King is a middle-of-the-road candidate who reasons out his positions and post lots of thoughtful white papers on complex issues. Many have expressed concern that his nebulous position on HERO will cause him grief on the campaign trail. King always shifts the discussion back to pensions and streets.

Unfortunately, we can’t share details of the debate with you as we did with the GLBT caucus endorsement as we weren’t allowed to participate.

Does this endorsement matter? It probably bolsters King’s support among conservatives and really helps him in the westside voter pool.

Ben Hall remains the only candidate stridently opposing HERO and continues to garner support from the Hotze family and other religious conservatives while Costello remains popular with many centrist voters.

The battle for the right-leaning voters continues but this endorsement gives King a real boost.

I would love to tell you that I’m a futurist or have pyschic abilities but an issue that generates this level of passion will always remain present. Just remember that the Roe v. Wade decision was made 42 years ago and still dominates elections. On HERO, people are passionate about Equal Rights on one side of the issue and bathrooms on the other.

Houston City Council voted yesterday to put the Ordinance on the ballot, forced to do so by a Court decision, for a public vote. No candidate and few individuals will be able to escape the election without engaging in at least one conversation on the topic. The issue may drive a higher turnout than we have seen in recent city elections.

Where does this leave the candidates for Mayor? Bell, Costello, Garcia, McVey, and Turner support the Ordinance. Ben Hall is avidly opposed to the Ordinance. Bill King has developed a thoughtful white paper on his opinion on the subject. Click here to review.

This election will evolve into another example of social issues driving democracy. But will it fix the potholes or balance the city budget? Let’s remember to keep asking these questions amdist the emotional debate.

I first met Bob Lanier in the “smoke-filled” rooms when I worked for powerful leaders of Texas. I was often the driver or just the campaign aide along for the ride, sitting quietly in rooms that were filled with such power, I had stars in my eyes. Bob Lanier was one of those people. Even in the 80’s, he was a powerhouse. In his folksy, aw shucks style, he would determine who would be a leader or the direction of complex legislation. Personally, I was in awe of him.

When he was appointed to the Texas Highway Commission, we began calling him “Commissioner” as a sign of respect. We had such hopes that he would bring highway funds to Houston and that he did. He took his responsibility of fighting for funds in our city seriously. By the way, he was a Democratic appointee.

As his term ended, Mayor Whitmire appointed him to Chair the Board of Metro in Houston. The thought was that he could help garner federal funds and move rail forward. Alas, this was not a good move for Mayor Whitmire. She ultimately fired him. When he was appointed, I worked for Mayor Whitmire on appointments to Boards and Commissions. I left before their spat emerged.

He was so angry with her that he sought to find a candidate to defeat her. His position as a “power broker” in the city was stronger than ever. In those days, there was still a newtwork of mostly white males that directed the city from backrooms, with the best of intentions.

When he failed to be satisfied with the field of candidates, he entered the race late. He defeated Sylvester Turner on the news of a very nagative story that most believed his team was responsible for releasing. While he was thrilled to be elected, he always felt a little bad about defeating what would have been Houston’s firt Afircan-American mayor. He spent his entire term healing wounds and building up the African-American community. He also ensured that the next Mayor would be Afircan-American and appointed many black leaders in his administration.

Bob Lanier was also our firs term-limited Mayor and his success made many people question whether term-limits were such a good idea but City Council of the era reinforced their position. Lanier faced challenges from a number of younger Council Members that were elected in his second and third terms. All of them grew under his tutelage and most importantly, learned leadership.

For leadership is the one word that captures Bob Lanier more than any other. From his time in the military to his time in law and as a developer, he has been a leader. He always considered betterment of the state and city as an important part of his job. He took unpopular positions and if he believed enough, he would roll over anyone who got in his way while he advocated for change. Most people never even saw these contributions.

While he is most recognized for being Mayor of Houston, it was really just an encapsulation of stepping into the limelight for something he had always done.

Houstonians adored him. Business leaders respected him. He and Elyse made major contributions to the city’s parks (they supported parks before it was cool) and many other charities.

Most importantly, I knew him as a father too. He loved his family unconditionally and he loved many others as if they were family. His home was always open and his laughter would roar across the city.

Thank you Mayor Bob – you were among the last of a breed of civic leaders that put Houston first in your heart!

Blessings to the entire Lanier family.

Today, we’ll lay out the “maybes” which at this point is a large number of civically engaged individuals. We’re certain we have missed some people considering a bid. If that is the case, send us a note and we’ll include you or your favorite in the future.

Now, let’s get started. Other potential Mayoral contenders include:

Sheriff Adrian Garcia is widely rumored to be considering a run for Mayor. Many of the insiders believe that he would be a serious contender and a likely front-runner with Sylvester Turner. The challenge for the Sheriff is that county office holders are prohibited from seeking other office. He has to resign at the point he decides to make an official announcement. This alone raises serious questions about his candidacy. If he resigns, he leaves the Republican County Commissioners Court to appoint his replacement and that concerns many Democrats. In fact, the Sheriff represents more people now than he would as Mayor and is touted both statewide and even nationally as a prominent Latino elected official.

Orlando Sanchez, the Harris County Treasurer and a former Houston City Council Member, finds himself in the same position. He is currently on the ballot and says “winning re-election” is his top priority. Sanchez has sought the office of Mayor twice before. While he is a Republican, he has deep Latino roots and has always done well with Latino voters.

For both of these folks, it is wait and see until the fundraising window opens. We can’t expect an announcement from either of them until after the first of the year. By then, the dynamics may change but we are keeping them both on the list.

Other Houston City Council Members have their eye on the race. Council Member Brad Bradford is term-limited so there is nothing for him to loose by assessing a candidacy. Many think he is looking at another opportunity but we definitely have him on our list.

Council Members Jack Christie and Michael Kubosh are both considering the race. They both can stand for re-election to their current positions. They will have to make a call sooner rather than later. If folks think they are running for Mayor and they change their mind, they may face stronger opponents in their re-election efforts.

Folks, that brings the total of current City Council Members either announced or considering a run for Mayor to 5. It will make for fun Council politics until it all shakes out.

Ben Hall ran against Parker last election and is said to be considering another bite at the apple. We hope he hires different political professionals as he had one of the worst campaigns ever in 2013. He can finance the race though and would still be a contender if he decides to run.

Bill King is a former Mayor of Kemah, a high-profile civic leader and a columnist for the daily newspaper’s editorial page. He has stepped to the plate in the past and then decided not to make the run. We keep his name on the list because many people mention him frequently.

Gilbert Garcia is the current Chair of the Metro Board and his name is bandied about quite a bit. He is said to be analyzing the race and assessing a potential candidacy. He would bring a different perspective to the campaign.

Former Houston City Council Member Sue Lovell‘s name is frequently mentioned. She has been long-involved in politics and has a strong base of supporters. She has told some she won’t run but her name keeps coming up in conversations.

If we go back to Monday’s post and reconsider the Sims theory on Mayoral elections, most of these names do not fit the model. Who are the business leaders considering the race?

The daily paper has mentioned Marty McVey. He is a strong civic leader, well-liked and has financial management experience.

Ric Campo is a powerhouse in the city. He currently chairs Central Houston Inc., Houston First and the Super Bowl Committee. Professionally, he is the CEO of Camden Properties, a major real estate developer. How can you not include this guy on a list of potential candidates?

Paul Hobby is currently Chair of the Greater Houston Partnership. He has told folks that he doesn’t plan to run but his name continues to bubble up among the gossips. He is doing a great job as Chair of this leading business organization. His term expires in January and many are hopeful he will then consider a bid for Mayor.

Less mentioned but certainly a potentially worthy candidate is Nancy Kinder. Nancy and Rich Kinder are among the city’s most generous philanthropic leaders. They have consistently shown an interest in the future of the city and in policy initiatives. Nancy Kinder has been a driving force with the development and ongoing strength of Discovery Green, Houston parks and Buffalo Bayou preservation initiatives. They have made a solid commitment to improving the city’s quality of life. Additionally, they support the Kinder Institute at Rice University. Nancy Kinder would be a formidable candidate for Mayor of Houston.

Obviously, all of these people will not make the run for Mayor. A few will emerge over the next few months and we’ll be sharing our thoughts as the assess their options. Buckle-up for what will be a truly exciting 2015 election cycle.

Today, we’ll look at those candidates that have given an indication they are seriously considering a run for the office or have already announced.

The “announced” or “expected” candidates include Chris Bell, Steve Costello, Oliver Pennington and Sylvester Turner. These names are listed in alphabetical order by last name. All of these candidates have been involved in politics and currently hold or have held office in the past.

If anyone questions State Representative Sylvester Turner’s commitment to running for Mayor, please watch this video. At a soiree last week that feted his 25 years of public service in the Texas Legislature, the video debuted. It has been reported that there was not a dry eye in the room.

Rep.Turner has made two previous attempts to become Mayor of Houston. In 1991, he was the underdog candidate and helped take then incumbent Mayor Kathy Whitmire out of office. He landed in a run-off with Bob Lanier. The campaign was nail-bitingly close and Turner narrowly lost the race after a blistering television story. Turner later sued the network and won one of the largest libel cases in Texas. Though he never actually received a settlement, the case made permanent changes to libel law in Texas.

In 2003, Turner again sought the office and was considered a front runner with Orlando Sanchez. But Bill White entered the race and the rest is history.

Not to be underestimated is State Senator John Whitmire’s support for Turner. He is committed to seeing Turner elected Mayor and openly supporting and encouraging others to support him.

Is it Turner’s turn? As the Houston Chronicle has reported, he will have ample funding transferable from his legislative account to finance his race. He has put together a team of seasoned political professionals as well. Today, most of the politicos consider him a serious contender for Mayor in 2015 and many folks are calling him the “one to beat”.

Council Member Oliver Pennington who currently represents District G in west Houston has openly indicated he will run for Mayor. In fact, many folks recently received a well-done mailer from him seeking their support and here is a link to his website. He is a seasoned professional who has been involved with legislation and governance most of his career, though mostly behind the scenes. He has also assembled a talented professional team.

Pennington brings a strong base of voters with him and is a well-known Republican candidate. He also is a strong fundraiser and will likely have the money needed to make the race.

Council Member Stephen Costello has announced his intent to run for Mayor. Costello is a bit unique in that he has mostly supporter Mayor Parker’s agenda but aligns himself with the Republican side of the aisle. He has strong support from the engineering and construction community as he is an engineer himself. Costello is even-tempered and well-liked by folks at City Hall. He has also put together a professional team of advisers.

Chris Bell is a former member of City Council, a former Member of Congress and has previously run for Mayor. He has been active in Democratic politics for years and even ran for Governor against Rick Perry. Bell will have to raise considerable money to be taken seriously but he has always had an unusual group of supporters that tend to hail from outside the normal donors and political crowd. As a former radio and television reporter, he can give an inspiring speech and his dry sense of humor promises to keep the campaign trail interesting.

There may be other candidates that have announced but these are the most well-known and discussed currently.

On Friday, we will look at candidates that may be likely to run, rumored to run and those names being bandied about….

While we have shared our theory for the next Mayoral election previously, we wanted to recap it again.

This blogger has been observing city elections since the mid-70’s. If we just focus in on the last 30 years, we can see a distinct pattern emerge.

Kathy Whitmire was elected in 1981 and became the first female Mayor of Houston. She was defeated (prior to term limits) and replaced by Mayor Bob Lanier. We followed a first with a well-heeled business leader. Then Lee P. Brown was elected our first African-American Mayor. He was followed by another well-heeled white male business leader in Bill White. Annise Parker is the first gay Mayor of Houston. If the theory follows, we should be expecting a well-heeled business leader to lead the next election.

Throughout this week, we will discuss the currently announced candidates and some who may be considering a run but have not readied to go public. The city window for fundraising actually opens on February 1. We have time but the race is actually beginning to heat up.

As we analyze the race, let’s keep the Sims theory in mind. Will we break the pattern?

Statewide Elections promise to be very exciting beginning with the primaries on March 4.   The Republican primaries are clearly far more interesting than the Democratic races.  However, the Democrats have some hotly contested races as well as 5 people seeking the privilege of opposing incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn.  He also faces a primary challenge from Congressman Steve Stockman in his own primary.    I would say it is a safe bet that Cornyn returns to D.C. but most pundits never predicted Ted Cruz so I will just wait and watch this one.

Beyond the primaries, the race for Governor should provide solid entertainment throughout the year as well as the race for Lt. Governor.  It is a fairly safe bet that Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott will be facing off for Governor and Leticia Van de Putte will be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor.  In fact, the Republican primary for Lt. Governor may be the most fascinating Republican primary race.  We’ll be looking at it more closely as the year progresses.

Meanwhile, local government will continue to churn.  6 new Council Members will bring their own thoughts and perspectives to the discussions of city government and no doubt spark new approaches to debates at the Council table.  Mayor Parker enters the year stronger than ever and should be able to successfully push through many of her goals for her final term.

She has decided to put some of her energy into changing term limits.  We’ve written extensively about term limits over the last few years and will follow this debate closely.  Parker has signed on to a push led by Council Member Bradford to seek to change the limits rather than abolish them.  It will be an interesting discussion.

2014 may also be the year we learn the fate of the Houston Astrodome, our iconic facility that pulls at our heart strings but serves no purpose at the moment.  Harris County Commissioners Court will make the decision of what happens to the structure.

We’ll ponder all the politics and a little of life along the way.

Thanks to all my loyal readers and Happy New Year!

This election has been especially odd but people do seem interested in the outcome.  At least, they seemed to have tuned-in during the last couple of weeks.  Early vote totals indicate that many are interested.

The Mayor’s race was expected to be much more intense but seemed to fizzle out towards the end.  Initially, most of the pundits regarded Ben Hall as a serious contender to face Mayor Parker due to his ability to self-fund his campaign.  Pundits also like good political theater.

However, Mr. Hall has let down most everyone in that regard.  While he has spent lots of money, he consistently hit the wrong note with voters.  He went dark on TV while Parker steadily blasted him with attack ads.

Council races also seem to be flying slightly below the radar.  When I ask any average voter (non-immersed politico) about At-Large Position 3, they look at me blankly.  When I name a few of the candidates running they sometime have a glimmer of recognition.  A number of people have seen the billboard Roy Morales has on 1-10 at Silber.  Many have heard of or seen signs for Michael Kubosh.  If they are party connected, they probably know Rogene Calvert, Kubosh or Morales.  Some know Roland Chavez has been a fire fighter and inner loopers seem to know Jennifer Rene Poole.  This race is anybody’s best guess.  Pundits think Kubosh wins but most won’t predict who is in a run-off with him.

Council Districts A, D and I have intense campaigns going on in their communities.  Again, unless you speak to someone who knows them, it is hard to measure the outcome.

Meanwhile, the fate of the Astrodome will finally be decided by voters across Harris County.  Will sentimentality overcome a tax increase?  That is one of the biggest questions facing voters.  Are you willing to pay more taxes to save Houston’s beloved landmark?  I think this one may squeak by.  It helps that Reliant Park officials are holding an Astrodome memorabilia sale just prior to the election.  It will remind everyone of the good times they had there.

Water is probably one of the most important issues on the ballot.  Proposition 6 will allow Texas to better plan for our water needs in the future.  The prolonged drought in parts of the state has had a significant impact on agriculture while rains wash away other parts of the state.  When speaking with a pundit in Dallas last week, he told me the Prop. 6 supporters are very worried since it has been raining so much in Houston this fall.  I told him to give us a little more credit.  Bottom line is that Houston/Harris County voters will have the most impact on the outcome of this election.  This blogger recommends a vote for Proposition 6, strongly.

If you need to learn more, please visit the Voters Guide produced by the League of Women Voters.  It provides unbiased and clear information on the candidates.

Consider yourself informed!  Now, GO VOTE!!!!!!

The Greater Houston Women’s Chamber of Commerce hosted a forum on Thursday and Houston Public Media (KUHT and KUHF) hosted a debate on Monday evening in conjunction with the League of Women Voters.  They also assisted with the Women’s Chamber forum.

We previously discussed the debate last week.  At the Women’s Chamber, it was an actual forum with a much shorter format.  Two candidates who had not participated in the debate were in attendance.

This field of candidates is truly interesting.  There are genuine grass-roots people running for Mayor.  Some are not so well spoken.  Some have a specific agenda they are espousing.  One is just downright funny and one is very angry.  When Mayor Parker and Ben Hall are in the mix of the field, they shine.  Mayor Parker has refused to meet Ben Hall one-on-one and insists that all candidates be invited when they have accepted forums.

Personally, I have enjoyed this exposure to the “also-rans” as they are often called in politics.  It makes me feel so much better about our democracy.  The guests at our table for the Women’s Chamber were not so enamored and were a little stunned.  Several of them pointed out that “anyone can run for Mayor”.  EXACTLY!  We live in a democracy and isn’t it great?

When I look at what is happening in Washington and I see the collapse of respected dialogue between elected officials, I am sad for democracy.  But when I look at a field of 9 Mayoral contenders, I feel better.

One of the problems with D.C. is the lack of competition in our system.  Most Members of Congress are elected from such lopsided partisan districts that they are answerable only to the most extreme loyalists of their party.  Sure, there is competition in the primary process but less than 15% of voters usually participate.  General election competition has dissipated completely and thus, we have a Congress that only talks to those who will re-elect them and not do what is in the best interests of the American public.

So rejoice!  Study up on the multiple candidates seeking office in Houston this year.  You can access the League of Women Voter’s Guide by clicking here.  

Early voting starts on October 21 so prepare yourself to participate in genuine democracy.