In just a few days, a new Republican-controlled House and Senate convene to govern our country alongside a Democratic president. Frankly, there is not likely to be much governing going on in D.C. but there will be plenty of hot air to warm a chill winter.

Alas, the themes of the next Presidential election will be running through all conversations, governing and actions. Presidential candidates are emerging and Hillary Clinton will have to confirm or deny her plans to enter the race. For in the world of campaigns, the 2016 election is rapidly approaching.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch in Texas, the Legislature will convene very soon. As we like to say, “No person’s life, liberty or wallet or safe when the Legislature is in Session.” That is, of course, why the founders of this great state thought the Legislature should meet every other year for 140 days. Initially, everyone was excited that the recent oil and economic growth in Texas might create a less budget strapped Session. Yet in just a matter of days, the price of oil is rapidly dropping and it may cause already strained budgets to be more closely reviewed.

In the state’s largest urban area and the 4th largest city in America, a Mayoral race will dominate the scenery. Literally, once the campaign signs start rising from the ground. A pool of candidates have announced their intentions to run and others are likely to come forward. It will be a crowded field seeking to govern the metropolis. There will also be 4 open seats for City Council and several contested races against incumbents as well as a new City Controller will be chosen. We’ll be tracking all the action here on the blog so stay tuned. Just track these categories: Hou Mayor 2015 and 2015 City of Houston Elections.

Happy Political New Year! Let’s rumble.

But, the voter ID debate has been a shoulder shrug for the most part. Until…. I just realized that I have messed up my sweet Dad’s ability to vote.

Most of the debate and testimony centers around minority voting rights and the fact that many minorities and the poor may not have a valid driver’s license. Hey, it’s expensive in both dollars and time to get a driver’s license. If you don’t drive, do you really need one?

But I have heard little about the debate involving and effecting the elderly. Thus, I was a little shocked when I realized that I had not taken care of my Dad’s issue.

In the last year, my sweet Dad has taken a significant turn for the worse in his health care. He has moved into a nursing home. I have taken over all of the paperwork and brought his car to my house.

Through much of the changes this year, I did not realize that his driver’s license had expired and that he had no formal identification other than his VA card. Uh oh.

I also forgot to move his voter registration and just truly messed up, admittedly. Now I am in deep trouble. My Dad, who has rarely missed an election in his entire life, is not going to be able to vote this year. I couldn’t get a mail ballot for him due to the move and change of address.

No problem, I thought, we’ll just go in person to the address he last voted. Well, he doesn’t have any identification. Thinking I could still fix it, we went to the DPS office to try and get an ID. HAH!!!! What an experience that turned out to be for us. As my Dad doesn’t pay any utilities or any bills in his name, we couldn’t get the card. We had no identifying papers with us to confirm his residence though we did have his expired driver’s license.

We were told that we could have the nursing home prepare a notarized letter that he is a resident and bring that back for review and consideration. Really?

So, one of your biggest advocates for voting and participating in a democracy, has truly made a mess of things.

The saddest part is that it might be his last opportunity to vote and I have dropped the ball.

I am humbled. And to all of you voter ID bashers out there, remember to include the elderly in your discussions. And when someone responds that “they can always vote by mail”, remind them that it doesn’t always address the issues that arise with rapid health decline and changing addresses that occur with our elderly.

When you make it difficult for our most seasoned and experienced citiznes to vote, the democracy is truly in trouble.

By the way Republicans, my Dad is a solid Repbulican and a Fox news watcher so this one cost you a vote……..

From the beginning of the cycle, it has seemed as though most pundits, business leaders and even many voters consider the outcome of the election a forgone conclusion. Yet, the candidates have done their best to engage voter interest and appear to be engaged in a contest.

Voters always tell pollsters that they detest negative campaigning. But in fact, data repeatedly shows that turnout increases when the campaigns become more negative.

Abbott and Davis, the candidates for Governor, have slung mud and engaged in repeated debates. Their negative campaigning has been respectable and within limits. Neither has ignored the other and among those who care, their have been clear cut differences between the two.

Patrick and Van de Putte, the candidates for Lt. Governor, have been somewhat different. Initially, Patrick was quieter after recovering from a bruising primary campaign. However, he released a television ad this week that actually mentions Van de Putte. She has been aggressively campaigning all along.

However, the money reports show the outcome and for the most part, predict the victors. Greg Abbott is sitting on so much cash in his campaign account that he may end the season with money leftover, even if floods the airwaves and ground war over the next month. Last estimate has him with $30 million cash on hand.

Davis is barely staying afloat with a mere $4.7 million on file.

Dan Patrick has nearly a two-to-one margin in funds over Van de Putte.

These two women candidates have run hard for the office and will continue to reach out to the “folks” in hopes of winning the election. But every ounce of outreach requires some funding and organizational budgets.

On rare occasions, the candidate with less money wins an election. Ann Richards became Governor after having been seriously out spent. However, her opponent made a couple of major mistakes during the campaign. Congressman John Culberson of Houston beat a well-funded opponent in a Republican primary with a powerful grass-roots organization driven by Republican women and others. It does happen.

If you believe in one of these candidates, you best get moving now and do the most you can to generate interest in the election and support for the person you most want to see win.

This blogger believes that the finances are a fair predictor of the election outcome……

For the 4th year, the Texas Tribune hosted a festival with bold-faced name keynotes and multiple tracks on energy, health care, transportation, immigration, open government, public education, higher education, justice and environment.

I attended with two colleagues from Pierpont Communications and it took us a week to sort out the sessions we would attend and required the building of a spread sheet so we could keep track.

We watched the gubernatorial debate on Friday night with a large audience and heard from candidate for Land Commissioner, George P. Bush. On Saturday, we were all scattered across multiple sessions and collecting valuable information for our clients.

One of the most fun sessions we attended included a panel of national politically focused journalists discussing the 2016 campaign. To a person, they had already nominated Hilary Clinton for the Democrats and had lively discussions about potential Republican nominees.

The very best part of the event was spending time with other people who work in or enjoy politics as much as we do and sharing insights and analysis of the various panels and policy discussions.

One of the biggest take-aways we garnered from the Festival is that the next Legislative session is going to be tumultuous. Most attendees have already elected Abbot and Dan Patrick in their models and are viewing policy through that window. Though money is always an issue, it is not in as short of supply this year. The bigger question is how Republicans will work together to actually solve problems when they are very splintered among themselves.

Thanks to the Texas Tribune for another great nerd nirvana weekend!

Not Greg Abbott. Even though the polls show him with a comfortable lead over Wendy Davis, he is not taking anything for granted. She is running hard and he is answering her every move. They have dueling television ad campaigns and dueling arguments on the trail.

Davis does not hesitate to attack Abbott and he does not shy away from mentioning her name either. Greg Abbott wants to become Governor of Texas with a mandate from the people. He wants to not just win but win big and show the Legislature that he has support for his agenda.

The more aggressively Davis campaigns, the more it empowers Abbott if he is the eventual victor. I’m just thankful that they are present and campaigning for the office.

Governor Perry refused to do anything other than tightly controlled campaign appearances during his last couple of races. When facing Bill White, he would not appear jointly with him or engage him in debate.

Abbott and Davis have agreed to meet at least twice in debate. How can Texans, in all honesty, choose a leader without public debate? Well, we just vote party apparently.

Kudos to Davis and Abbott for running actual campaigns and letting Texans know there is an election coming up. And for you readers out there, it is time to engage, study the candidates and make an informed decision.

It is refreshing to visit Texas counties with populations of 20,000 and chat about state politics with local elected officials.

On a trip this week, post Labor Day, I met several county officials of both party persuasions that are on the ballot this fall. It seemed that they were ignoring the top of the ticket. Neither nominee, Abbott or Davis, inspired much conversation. While we saw many political signs for local offices, we did not see a single Abbott or Davis sign across 6 different rural counties.

We further noted that many of the local officials and candidates did not include party affiliation on their signs. One local official admitted that he was a Democrat in rural Texas and that made him a dying breed. He then proceeded to tell us that Democrats would control the state completely in eight years. He said he just had to hang on……

After about 300+ miles across central Texas, I had to wonder if there is a state election happening this year. Are there campaigns out there? If so, you could not tell it across the part of rural Texas I visited this week.

I thought people in Houston were just ignoring it, even with the multitude of ads. But, hey, those statewide candidates better get to organizing. My biggest fear is that apathy will win the 2014 election.

After all these years, we will have a new Governor and a new Lt. Governor. Does anyone out there care?

This immediately set off a flurry of activity among potential Republican candidates.  Some announced immediately, like Senator Glenn Hegar.  Others are considering running, including the inimitable Tom Craddick, former Speaker of the Texas House and one of its longest serving members. Other names bandied about include Senator Tommy Williams and Rep. Harvey Hildebran.  Former Tea Party candidate for Governor, Debra Medina, has also announced her commitment to run.  This blogger hasn’t seen any indication of Democrats announcing for the office, only Republicans.

Susan Combs has had a long career in Texas Politics and Texans have liked having a woman as Comptroller.  For the last several years, she has been the only female among the 6 single office state wide elected officials.  There is a woman on the Texas Railroad Commission and a few women among the state wide judicial offices.  However, there is no question that among state offices, Combs has been the ranking female.

I teach Women in Politics at the University of Houston.  As a part of my ongoing research for that ever-changing course, I study women elected officials across the U.S. and beyond.  Americans truly like to put women in charge of money.  Two-thirds of elected budget positions in the U.S. are held by females.  Studies indicate that voters “trust” women more to manage money.

In Texas, we once had a State Treasurer.  This position launched Ann Richards and Kay Bailey Hutchison to higher offices.  Both of them held the position prior to being elected Governor and U.S. Senator.   Another woman, Martha Whitehead, took over the office.  The office was abolished in 1995 by Texas voters.

In 1998, Carole Keeton Rylander Strayhorn, was elected State Comptroller and a female has held the office since then.  Strayhorn served from 1998 through 2006 when she ran for Governor.  Combs was elected to the open position in 2006.

Yet, among the candidate names we hear being bandied, there is only one female – Debra Medina.  She will run as an outsider.  Will the party apparatus get behind her?

And where is the pipeline for women candidates?  With the retirement of Hutchison as U.S. Senator and the retirement of Combs,  female officeholders in Texas are dwindling rapidly.

If the Democrats were smart, they ought to find a strong female candidate with budget experience and run her for State Comptroller.  They don’t really have much of a chance in a statewide election but a strong female would be better than most.

Thanks to Susan Combs for carrying the torch statewide.

For the first time in several Sessions, the Legislature got along a little better this year.  They worked together to address some of the major issues facing the state like water and education and they even managed to pass a budget, though it was down to the wire.

One of the reasons they got along so well is that the leadership kept a focus on the major priorities of the Session and didn’t allow some of the more controversial issues to surface.

Never fear!  That great divider, redistricting, is the major call for the Special Session which the Governor called immediately.

Exhausted Legislators must now move into self-preservation mode and as I have frequently discussed, tackle one of the most complex topics of the day.  Nothing is more challenging than for a body of elected leaders to “fairly” approve districts that represent all Texans.

The Governor simply wants the Legislature to approve the maps drawn by a San Antonio Federal Court and used for the last election cycle.  However, the Court is due to convene again this week to discuss the case and determine if the Voting Rights Act is still applicable in Texas.

Democrats, who were not enthusiastic about the plan to begin with, will make their case in the Legislature but they have little influence.  During the Regular Session, the 2/3 rule applies in the Senate that prevents legislation from being put forward without a 2/3 majority of support.  This allows Democrats to fight down some of the legislation they see as most offensive.  In a Special Session, the 2/3 rule does not necessarily apply, though the Democrats are calling for it to be used.

At this point, the only issue on the Call is redistricting.  However, the Governor may open it up to include some of the more controversial issues of the Session that did not make it through the “peacful” process.

This blogger believes that redistricting is at the root of our troubled democracy and has significantly impacted competition among campaigns.  It is always unnerving when the process carries itself well into the decade when it should only be done every 10 years.

Check out the redistricting category for more.

After a grueling election that spurred extreme negative politics, they came out in greater numbers than anticipated to make their choice.

The good news is that more than 18,000 voters cast ballots.  In the first round, only about 15,000 people participated.  While it is not a record turnout, these are good numbers for a spring election.

And the race was not as close as expected.  Garcia won victory with a strong 53% of the vote.

Carol Alvarado remains in her position as a State Representative and will continue to speak for many constituents in Senate District 6.

The challenge now will be for the community as a whole to put the negative campaign behind them.  Garcia and Alvarado were so closely aligned politically on the needs of the area that attacking each other became the differentiator in the race.

Austin players also became very important during this campaign.  Steve Mostyn, a Democratic trial lawyer,  and many unions backed Garcia.  Alvarado had support from the business community and from the Texans for Lawsuit Reform.  As a sitting State Representative, the business community in Austin knew that they would be working with her either way.

So, score one for the labor and trial lawyers in this race.

Congrats to the people of Senate District 6.  At least now you will have a Senator to speak for you in the critical final 3 months of the Session.

And, congrats to Senator Garcia!

Meanwhile, Texas Governor Rick Perry laid out his State of the State speech before the Texas Legislature.  After 13 years of serving as Governor, he shared with us that he will “scrub the budget” and look for ways to refund taxes to Texans.  Personally, I found it fascinating that there is still more budget to be scrubbed.  Governor Perry has had 13 years to clean up the budget and the Legislature has been completely controlled by Republicans since 2002.  The budget ought to be fairly well scrubbed.

Meanwhile, he also suggested using a portion of the Rainy Day funds for the state’s water plan.  This is a truly critical policy issue for the State of Texas.  In the early 1990’s, then Lt. Governor Bullock told me that “Water, Nancy, it’s going to be all about water next century”.  And that has proven so very true.  Texas must address our complex water management issues.  Apparently, the still “in need of being scrubbed” budget, cannot find any additional funds for water management so they will use Rainy Day funds.  Doesn’t matter to me – just do something!

The Governor also mentioned infrastructure and charged the Legislature to fund improvements.  Thank goodness.  With all of Texas’ growth, our roads and infrastructure are not keeping up.  I hope they can scrub the budget and find more money to fund highways.

Perry  touched on education policy without going into too much detail on funding.  Most attributed this to the pending lawsuit against the state by a number of school districts.  It is expected that the Legislature may have to address funding in a Special Session after the court rules.  School-choice remains a hot topic for the Session as well as testing reforms.

Governor Perry, I do want some money back.  How about providing more education funding so my local property taxes decrease?  For all the budget “scrubbing” over the last few years, more costs have been passed to local governments.  This has caused significant local tax increases.  If the state could figure out how to help solve that problem, most Texans will benefit.  Hey, we don’t have a income tax in Texas but if you own property, you pay serious taxes.

Interestingly, the Governor did not address immigration reform.  He’s leaving that one to the feds but plenty of legislators have ideas, including how to separate Texas from federal “mandates”.

It’s going to be a fun year!