In just a few days, a new Republican-controlled House and Senate convene to govern our country alongside a Democratic president. Frankly, there is not likely to be much governing going on in D.C. but there will be plenty of hot air to warm a chill winter.

Alas, the themes of the next Presidential election will be running through all conversations, governing and actions. Presidential candidates are emerging and Hillary Clinton will have to confirm or deny her plans to enter the race. For in the world of campaigns, the 2016 election is rapidly approaching.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch in Texas, the Legislature will convene very soon. As we like to say, “No person’s life, liberty or wallet or safe when the Legislature is in Session.” That is, of course, why the founders of this great state thought the Legislature should meet every other year for 140 days. Initially, everyone was excited that the recent oil and economic growth in Texas might create a less budget strapped Session. Yet in just a matter of days, the price of oil is rapidly dropping and it may cause already strained budgets to be more closely reviewed.

In the state’s largest urban area and the 4th largest city in America, a Mayoral race will dominate the scenery. Literally, once the campaign signs start rising from the ground. A pool of candidates have announced their intentions to run and others are likely to come forward. It will be a crowded field seeking to govern the metropolis. There will also be 4 open seats for City Council and several contested races against incumbents as well as a new City Controller will be chosen. We’ll be tracking all the action here on the blog so stay tuned. Just track these categories: Hou Mayor 2015 and 2015 City of Houston Elections.

Happy Political New Year! Let’s rumble.

I first met Bob Lanier in the “smoke-filled” rooms when I worked for powerful leaders of Texas. I was often the driver or just the campaign aide along for the ride, sitting quietly in rooms that were filled with such power, I had stars in my eyes. Bob Lanier was one of those people. Even in the 80’s, he was a powerhouse. In his folksy, aw shucks style, he would determine who would be a leader or the direction of complex legislation. Personally, I was in awe of him.

When he was appointed to the Texas Highway Commission, we began calling him “Commissioner” as a sign of respect. We had such hopes that he would bring highway funds to Houston and that he did. He took his responsibility of fighting for funds in our city seriously. By the way, he was a Democratic appointee.

As his term ended, Mayor Whitmire appointed him to Chair the Board of Metro in Houston. The thought was that he could help garner federal funds and move rail forward. Alas, this was not a good move for Mayor Whitmire. She ultimately fired him. When he was appointed, I worked for Mayor Whitmire on appointments to Boards and Commissions. I left before their spat emerged.

He was so angry with her that he sought to find a candidate to defeat her. His position as a “power broker” in the city was stronger than ever. In those days, there was still a newtwork of mostly white males that directed the city from backrooms, with the best of intentions.

When he failed to be satisfied with the field of candidates, he entered the race late. He defeated Sylvester Turner on the news of a very nagative story that most believed his team was responsible for releasing. While he was thrilled to be elected, he always felt a little bad about defeating what would have been Houston’s firt Afircan-American mayor. He spent his entire term healing wounds and building up the African-American community. He also ensured that the next Mayor would be Afircan-American and appointed many black leaders in his administration.

Bob Lanier was also our firs term-limited Mayor and his success made many people question whether term-limits were such a good idea but City Council of the era reinforced their position. Lanier faced challenges from a number of younger Council Members that were elected in his second and third terms. All of them grew under his tutelage and most importantly, learned leadership.

For leadership is the one word that captures Bob Lanier more than any other. From his time in the military to his time in law and as a developer, he has been a leader. He always considered betterment of the state and city as an important part of his job. He took unpopular positions and if he believed enough, he would roll over anyone who got in his way while he advocated for change. Most people never even saw these contributions.

While he is most recognized for being Mayor of Houston, it was really just an encapsulation of stepping into the limelight for something he had always done.

Houstonians adored him. Business leaders respected him. He and Elyse made major contributions to the city’s parks (they supported parks before it was cool) and many other charities.

Most importantly, I knew him as a father too. He loved his family unconditionally and he loved many others as if they were family. His home was always open and his laughter would roar across the city.

Thank you Mayor Bob – you were among the last of a breed of civic leaders that put Houston first in your heart!

Blessings to the entire Lanier family.

But, the voter ID debate has been a shoulder shrug for the most part. Until…. I just realized that I have messed up my sweet Dad’s ability to vote.

Most of the debate and testimony centers around minority voting rights and the fact that many minorities and the poor may not have a valid driver’s license. Hey, it’s expensive in both dollars and time to get a driver’s license. If you don’t drive, do you really need one?

But I have heard little about the debate involving and effecting the elderly. Thus, I was a little shocked when I realized that I had not taken care of my Dad’s issue.

In the last year, my sweet Dad has taken a significant turn for the worse in his health care. He has moved into a nursing home. I have taken over all of the paperwork and brought his car to my house.

Through much of the changes this year, I did not realize that his driver’s license had expired and that he had no formal identification other than his VA card. Uh oh.

I also forgot to move his voter registration and just truly messed up, admittedly. Now I am in deep trouble. My Dad, who has rarely missed an election in his entire life, is not going to be able to vote this year. I couldn’t get a mail ballot for him due to the move and change of address.

No problem, I thought, we’ll just go in person to the address he last voted. Well, he doesn’t have any identification. Thinking I could still fix it, we went to the DPS office to try and get an ID. HAH!!!! What an experience that turned out to be for us. As my Dad doesn’t pay any utilities or any bills in his name, we couldn’t get the card. We had no identifying papers with us to confirm his residence though we did have his expired driver’s license.

We were told that we could have the nursing home prepare a notarized letter that he is a resident and bring that back for review and consideration. Really?

So, one of your biggest advocates for voting and participating in a democracy, has truly made a mess of things.

The saddest part is that it might be his last opportunity to vote and I have dropped the ball.

I am humbled. And to all of you voter ID bashers out there, remember to include the elderly in your discussions. And when someone responds that “they can always vote by mail”, remind them that it doesn’t always address the issues that arise with rapid health decline and changing addresses that occur with our elderly.

When you make it difficult for our most seasoned and experienced citiznes to vote, the democracy is truly in trouble.

By the way Republicans, my Dad is a solid Repbulican and a Fox news watcher so this one cost you a vote……..

From the beginning of the cycle, it has seemed as though most pundits, business leaders and even many voters consider the outcome of the election a forgone conclusion. Yet, the candidates have done their best to engage voter interest and appear to be engaged in a contest.

Voters always tell pollsters that they detest negative campaigning. But in fact, data repeatedly shows that turnout increases when the campaigns become more negative.

Abbott and Davis, the candidates for Governor, have slung mud and engaged in repeated debates. Their negative campaigning has been respectable and within limits. Neither has ignored the other and among those who care, their have been clear cut differences between the two.

Patrick and Van de Putte, the candidates for Lt. Governor, have been somewhat different. Initially, Patrick was quieter after recovering from a bruising primary campaign. However, he released a television ad this week that actually mentions Van de Putte. She has been aggressively campaigning all along.

However, the money reports show the outcome and for the most part, predict the victors. Greg Abbott is sitting on so much cash in his campaign account that he may end the season with money leftover, even if floods the airwaves and ground war over the next month. Last estimate has him with $30 million cash on hand.

Davis is barely staying afloat with a mere $4.7 million on file.

Dan Patrick has nearly a two-to-one margin in funds over Van de Putte.

These two women candidates have run hard for the office and will continue to reach out to the “folks” in hopes of winning the election. But every ounce of outreach requires some funding and organizational budgets.

On rare occasions, the candidate with less money wins an election. Ann Richards became Governor after having been seriously out spent. However, her opponent made a couple of major mistakes during the campaign. Congressman John Culberson of Houston beat a well-funded opponent in a Republican primary with a powerful grass-roots organization driven by Republican women and others. It does happen.

If you believe in one of these candidates, you best get moving now and do the most you can to generate interest in the election and support for the person you most want to see win.

This blogger believes that the finances are a fair predictor of the election outcome……

For the 4th year, the Texas Tribune hosted a festival with bold-faced name keynotes and multiple tracks on energy, health care, transportation, immigration, open government, public education, higher education, justice and environment.

I attended with two colleagues from Pierpont Communications and it took us a week to sort out the sessions we would attend and required the building of a spread sheet so we could keep track.

We watched the gubernatorial debate on Friday night with a large audience and heard from candidate for Land Commissioner, George P. Bush. On Saturday, we were all scattered across multiple sessions and collecting valuable information for our clients.

One of the most fun sessions we attended included a panel of national politically focused journalists discussing the 2016 campaign. To a person, they had already nominated Hilary Clinton for the Democrats and had lively discussions about potential Republican nominees.

The very best part of the event was spending time with other people who work in or enjoy politics as much as we do and sharing insights and analysis of the various panels and policy discussions.

One of the biggest take-aways we garnered from the Festival is that the next Legislative session is going to be tumultuous. Most attendees have already elected Abbot and Dan Patrick in their models and are viewing policy through that window. Though money is always an issue, it is not in as short of supply this year. The bigger question is how Republicans will work together to actually solve problems when they are very splintered among themselves.

Thanks to the Texas Tribune for another great nerd nirvana weekend!

Dan Patrick, the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, took out the incumbent David Dewhurst in the primary run-off. It was a brutal, long primary but Patrick won convincingly.

The Democrats have nominated veteran State Senator Leticia Van de Putte.

Van de Putte is campaigning hard across the state with a grass-roots campaign. Patrick continues to reach out and connect with the party faithful. The Houston Chronicle addressed this subject earlier this week.

On Monday, we discussed the active campaign between Abbott and Davis. The complete opposite is occurring in the Lt. Governor’s race. Dan Patrick is not visible, not debating and simply ignoring his opponent.

Let’s face facts, a Democrat hasn’t won statewide office in 20 years. Patrick is hanging the curtains, considering his committee appointments and thinking about hiring staff. There is only a very small likelihood that he would be defeated.

We have a great contrast on our hands. Will Abbott win by a greater margin than Patrick? Will Patrick be victorious by staying completely off the campaign trail?

The deeper question is about democracy. Should a candidate be expected to engage in a political campaign? Not really. They have to raise so much money and voters should be tuned-in enough to notice.

We often put the blame for our issues with government on others. The fact is that we should take responsibility. We have the right to vote, to determine who runs our government. If we default on democracy, it is our fault.

“The ship of democracy, which has weathered all storms, may sink through the mutiny of those on board.”
Grover Cleveland

Not Greg Abbott. Even though the polls show him with a comfortable lead over Wendy Davis, he is not taking anything for granted. She is running hard and he is answering her every move. They have dueling television ad campaigns and dueling arguments on the trail.

Davis does not hesitate to attack Abbott and he does not shy away from mentioning her name either. Greg Abbott wants to become Governor of Texas with a mandate from the people. He wants to not just win but win big and show the Legislature that he has support for his agenda.

The more aggressively Davis campaigns, the more it empowers Abbott if he is the eventual victor. I’m just thankful that they are present and campaigning for the office.

Governor Perry refused to do anything other than tightly controlled campaign appearances during his last couple of races. When facing Bill White, he would not appear jointly with him or engage him in debate.

Abbott and Davis have agreed to meet at least twice in debate. How can Texans, in all honesty, choose a leader without public debate? Well, we just vote party apparently.

Kudos to Davis and Abbott for running actual campaigns and letting Texans know there is an election coming up. And for you readers out there, it is time to engage, study the candidates and make an informed decision.

It is refreshing to visit Texas counties with populations of 20,000 and chat about state politics with local elected officials.

On a trip this week, post Labor Day, I met several county officials of both party persuasions that are on the ballot this fall. It seemed that they were ignoring the top of the ticket. Neither nominee, Abbott or Davis, inspired much conversation. While we saw many political signs for local offices, we did not see a single Abbott or Davis sign across 6 different rural counties.

We further noted that many of the local officials and candidates did not include party affiliation on their signs. One local official admitted that he was a Democrat in rural Texas and that made him a dying breed. He then proceeded to tell us that Democrats would control the state completely in eight years. He said he just had to hang on……

After about 300+ miles across central Texas, I had to wonder if there is a state election happening this year. Are there campaigns out there? If so, you could not tell it across the part of rural Texas I visited this week.

I thought people in Houston were just ignoring it, even with the multitude of ads. But, hey, those statewide candidates better get to organizing. My biggest fear is that apathy will win the 2014 election.

After all these years, we will have a new Governor and a new Lt. Governor. Does anyone out there care?

Statewide Elections promise to be very exciting beginning with the primaries on March 4.   The Republican primaries are clearly far more interesting than the Democratic races.  However, the Democrats have some hotly contested races as well as 5 people seeking the privilege of opposing incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn.  He also faces a primary challenge from Congressman Steve Stockman in his own primary.    I would say it is a safe bet that Cornyn returns to D.C. but most pundits never predicted Ted Cruz so I will just wait and watch this one.

Beyond the primaries, the race for Governor should provide solid entertainment throughout the year as well as the race for Lt. Governor.  It is a fairly safe bet that Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott will be facing off for Governor and Leticia Van de Putte will be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor.  In fact, the Republican primary for Lt. Governor may be the most fascinating Republican primary race.  We’ll be looking at it more closely as the year progresses.

Meanwhile, local government will continue to churn.  6 new Council Members will bring their own thoughts and perspectives to the discussions of city government and no doubt spark new approaches to debates at the Council table.  Mayor Parker enters the year stronger than ever and should be able to successfully push through many of her goals for her final term.

She has decided to put some of her energy into changing term limits.  We’ve written extensively about term limits over the last few years and will follow this debate closely.  Parker has signed on to a push led by Council Member Bradford to seek to change the limits rather than abolish them.  It will be an interesting discussion.

2014 may also be the year we learn the fate of the Houston Astrodome, our iconic facility that pulls at our heart strings but serves no purpose at the moment.  Harris County Commissioners Court will make the decision of what happens to the structure.

We’ll ponder all the politics and a little of life along the way.

Thanks to all my loyal readers and Happy New Year!

This immediately set off a flurry of activity among potential Republican candidates.  Some announced immediately, like Senator Glenn Hegar.  Others are considering running, including the inimitable Tom Craddick, former Speaker of the Texas House and one of its longest serving members. Other names bandied about include Senator Tommy Williams and Rep. Harvey Hildebran.  Former Tea Party candidate for Governor, Debra Medina, has also announced her commitment to run.  This blogger hasn’t seen any indication of Democrats announcing for the office, only Republicans.

Susan Combs has had a long career in Texas Politics and Texans have liked having a woman as Comptroller.  For the last several years, she has been the only female among the 6 single office state wide elected officials.  There is a woman on the Texas Railroad Commission and a few women among the state wide judicial offices.  However, there is no question that among state offices, Combs has been the ranking female.

I teach Women in Politics at the University of Houston.  As a part of my ongoing research for that ever-changing course, I study women elected officials across the U.S. and beyond.  Americans truly like to put women in charge of money.  Two-thirds of elected budget positions in the U.S. are held by females.  Studies indicate that voters “trust” women more to manage money.

In Texas, we once had a State Treasurer.  This position launched Ann Richards and Kay Bailey Hutchison to higher offices.  Both of them held the position prior to being elected Governor and U.S. Senator.   Another woman, Martha Whitehead, took over the office.  The office was abolished in 1995 by Texas voters.

In 1998, Carole Keeton Rylander Strayhorn, was elected State Comptroller and a female has held the office since then.  Strayhorn served from 1998 through 2006 when she ran for Governor.  Combs was elected to the open position in 2006.

Yet, among the candidate names we hear being bandied, there is only one female – Debra Medina.  She will run as an outsider.  Will the party apparatus get behind her?

And where is the pipeline for women candidates?  With the retirement of Hutchison as U.S. Senator and the retirement of Combs,  female officeholders in Texas are dwindling rapidly.

If the Democrats were smart, they ought to find a strong female candidate with budget experience and run her for State Comptroller.  They don’t really have much of a chance in a statewide election but a strong female would be better than most.

Thanks to Susan Combs for carrying the torch statewide.