Ponderings

Now that Mitt Romney has secured the nomination and Obama has officially “launched” his campaign, we are off and running. Are you excited yet? Can you just not wait to make your selection for President?

Hmmmm, as expected. You seem to have a case of the doldrums. I hear you saying it: “What difference does it make anyway?” “They’re all the same.” “No one really cares about me.” “It doesn’t matter who gets elected because they just fight anyway.”

I understand your frustration and I acknowledge it. But I want to remind you that Democracy is a REPRESENTATIVE government. Even if you believe that you do not like your choices, you still need to cast a ballot. The greatest failure of a democracy is the default of participation.

When you are whining and complaining about the “choices” you have to select from for President, please remember that American soldiers are fighting for your freedom around the world today. Pause and give thanks for how lucky you are to live in a society that gives you choices, even if you don’t like them.

And if you don’t like it, do something about it. Representative government can only occur through the participation of its citizens.

So, tune out the Super PACs, tune out the rhetoric, and research genuine positions on issues. You have 6 months to study for your exam. Make the most of it!

Over the weekend, both Democrats and Republicans held their Senate District conventions. These events are a critical step on the path to state and national conventions.

The Democrats spread out across their various Senate Districts while the Republicans gathered at one location.

As compared to 2008, attendance was extremely low, per early reports. In 2008, a Democratic primary race was still brewing and Republicans were excited about their chance to retain the White House against “first-ever” Democratic candidates.

This year, the enthusiasm is just not there. Republicans are somewhat energized by their distaste for the incumbent but not excited about their likely nominee. Democrats are just hoping to retain but have lost that sense of “hope and change” that was prevalent in the last election.

Are these conventions a predictor for the upcoming election? As this blog has previously discussed, voter turnout in 2012 will likely not be as high as 2008. These conventions provide further evidence of the lack of enthusiasm even among involved partisans.

If the partisans are not excited about the election, who is?

Do you live in Texas, California, Alaska, Arkansas, or any of 38 states? If so, you may hear that there is a Presidential election in 2012 but you will not likely see the candidates or any campaigning, other than grass roots.

Presidential politics have settled on a few states that are considered “swing” states. Voting patterns have created a red and blue country and maps illustrate the likely voting trends of those states. Click here to see a good map.

This focus on a few critical states further oppresses voter turnout. In the last post, we discussed the lack of enthusiasm voters may have for the candidates this year. Add on to that the scenario that most Americans will have little to no exposure to the Presidential candidates, except through news and/or debates and it creates a formula for even lower turnout.

If you are lucky enough to live in Wisconsin or Colorado or other swing states, you will be bombarded with messages, campaign organizations and grass-roots “get out the vote” programs. If not, you will be lucky if someone sets up a volunteer headquarters in your state.

During the last election, this Texan (a definitively red state) was lucky enough to take a business trip to Florida. I was obsessed with the news, campaign ads and constant discussion surrounding me about the election. People were engaged, paying attention and excited about their choices. When I returned home, I realized that the only excitement here was generated by the locals.

For the 12 “swing” states this year, their entire ballots will feel the presence of the money flow from the Presidential campaigns. Lower ballot races will benefit from the millions of dollars poured into organizations designed to “get out the vote” and the preponderance of television advertising. The Presidential candidates will visit their states repeatedly and it is likely that any general citizen may have the opportunity to see them in person.

Back home in Texas, we cannot honestly expect either Romney or Obama to invest in winning votes in our state. Most activity here will be driven by volunteers and the local races will help drive turnout for the Presidential campaign.

Thankfully, we will have exposure to the candidates and their campaigns through modern media which will flood the airwaves and Internet with information. It becomes incumbent upon us as citizens to educate ourselves and make informed decisions.

Don’t be lazy, get out there and work for the candidate that inspires you the most!

Now that it is looking more and more like Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, we can begin to assess the general election. One thing we know for certain, it will not be pretty!

SuperPAC’s will cast aspersions and drive the level of vitriolic debate to a new high. The candidates will attack each other’s policies and proposals while the “third party” interests will attack them on all levels, including personally.

The real question is how this race will affect other races on the ballot. In 2008, the U.S. had one of the highest voter turnouts we have had in decades. More people participated in the political process than had done so over the last 40 years. Many new voters came to the polls following the then Obama campaign message of “hope” and to cast ballots for the first ever African-American candidate for the nation’s highest office. The turnout also swept many others into office – from Congress to county courthouses.

In 2010, the opposite occurred. Far fewer voters participated in the mid-term elections and many of those swept into office in 2008 were quickly ousted. Now, most are enthusiastic that a repeat of 2008 will happen in 2012.

Personally, I do not think so. Both Obama and Romney are fairly unflappable candidates who adapt their messages according to audience and generate moderate enthusiasm from audiences. In Obama’s case, many of those who participated in making history with the message of “Hope” are feeling disappointed. For Romney, the conservative base of his voters are not that excited about his candidacy. It will be negative feelings toward the other candidate that draws voters to the polls more than the candidates themselves.

And, let’s be frank, both of these guys are kind of boring. A debate between the two of them will likely follow script and nothing exciting will happen. It may be a challenge just to stay awake through them. They are both fairly well road tested on debates.

Voter turnout will naturally be somewhat higher as it always is during Presidential elections but this blogger doesn’t believe that it will come anywhere near the 2008 numbers. What happens to those candidates who would fare better with a higher voter turnout? It will simply be a matter of turnout? Which party turns out more voters?

Next post, we will assess the “limited” Presidential election.