Now that it is looking more and more like Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, we can begin to assess the general election. One thing we know for certain, it will not be pretty!
SuperPAC’s will cast aspersions and drive the level of vitriolic debate to a new high. The candidates will attack each other’s policies and proposals while the “third party” interests will attack them on all levels, including personally.
The real question is how this race will affect other races on the ballot. In 2008, the U.S. had one of the highest voter turnouts we have had in decades. More people participated in the political process than had done so over the last 40 years. Many new voters came to the polls following the then Obama campaign message of “hope” and to cast ballots for the first ever African-American candidate for the nation’s highest office. The turnout also swept many others into office – from Congress to county courthouses.
In 2010, the opposite occurred. Far fewer voters participated in the mid-term elections and many of those swept into office in 2008 were quickly ousted. Now, most are enthusiastic that a repeat of 2008 will happen in 2012.
Personally, I do not think so. Both Obama and Romney are fairly unflappable candidates who adapt their messages according to audience and generate moderate enthusiasm from audiences. In Obama’s case, many of those who participated in making history with the message of “Hope” are feeling disappointed. For Romney, the conservative base of his voters are not that excited about his candidacy. It will be negative feelings toward the other candidate that draws voters to the polls more than the candidates themselves.
And, let’s be frank, both of these guys are kind of boring. A debate between the two of them will likely follow script and nothing exciting will happen. It may be a challenge just to stay awake through them. They are both fairly well road tested on debates.
Voter turnout will naturally be somewhat higher as it always is during Presidential elections but this blogger doesn’t believe that it will come anywhere near the 2008 numbers. What happens to those candidates who would fare better with a higher voter turnout? It will simply be a matter of turnout? Which party turns out more voters?
Next post, we will assess the “limited” Presidential election.
The turnout bubble in 2008 was generated largely by the black electorate getting excited about the opportunity to vote for a black man for president. The image of throngs of black voters marching to the polls drove home this phenomenon. However, as you said, those voters are probably feeling disappointed four years later. That, and the novelty has probably worn off. However, the angry Republican voters have created a mirror image of 2004, when the Dems were angry at George W, but nominated their own boring candidate, and found that anger alone wasn’t enough to unseat an incumbent. I think turnout will be much lower this time, but it will be equally depressed on both sides. But what will come of the Congressional races? Are there enough close ones to switch it back to a Democratic Congress? What issues will drive this year’s election?